Fri, May 22
Race 9
Alw 50000s
Post: 4:55 · 1m · Turf · $83K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #8 LUCKY MISCHIEF (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 MARY'S BOY BOLT (EP, QSP 5)
- #9 MAKUTU (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 3, 4, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$80.60
mean $81.15
Expected ROI
+5.9%
net $0.35
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 4, 1] — hits 7.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $81 (mean $81; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
4, 1, 8
C Value-edge longshots
5, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.6% | $69.28 | -11% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.7% | $69.28 | -13% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 11.0% | $70.77 | -16% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 21.8% | $74.12 | -8% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.6% | $49.83 | -51% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APUTOPIAN | 6.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 80.9 | 23% | 61% | ▲+25% |
| 4 | BPGARRYOWEN | 8.0-1 | 8.5-1 | 79.0 | 19% | 55% | ▲+26% |
| 1 | BSSOUND CAUSE | 15-1 | 19-1 | 75.4 | 15% | 45% | ▲+30% |
| 8 | BEPLUCKY MISCHIEF | 10-1 | 16-1 | 75.8 | 12% | 38% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | EPMARY'S BOY BOLT | 4.5-1 | 6.4-1 | 74.4 | 12% | 37% | ▼-9% |
| 5 | CPTIZ FREEDOM | 12-1 | 18-1 | 75.6 | 11% | 35% | ▲+16% |
| 9 | CEMAKUTU | 12-1 | 20-1 | 67.7 | 9% | 28% | ▲+9% |
| 2 | SCREPTHE DOVER SPECTER | 3.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCREPRAZORCAT | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCRSSNARE | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCREPGENE AND JUDE | 2.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCREPTAUNTING | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCRSSURVIVIN'ONAPRAYER | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRSBEST KNOWN SECRET | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.