John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 7

MARY'S BOY BOLT

G '21 · BOLT D'ORO × MARY EDNA

Trainer: HARTMAN CHRIS · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

74.4

Speed fig

36.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.99
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.36
  • Class Par Trend +0.32
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.24
  • Days Since Last Race +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.48
  • Today Field Size -0.90
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.35
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.30
  • Last Speed Fig -0.26

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 1.06m Dirt 6 25.5 58 91 Inside; done early
2026-03-12 FG 1.06m Dirt 3 4.3 86 87 Duel pace;yielded
2026-02-12 FG 1.06m Turf 6 5.0 78 87 Chased; flattened
2025-12-28 FG 1.06m Turf 2 0.1 83 85 Closed; split; nailed
2025-12-04 FG 1.06m Dirt 1 6.3 80 82 Vied ins; clear; best
2025-10-29 CD 1.13m Dirt 6 15.0 75 85 Bump st;4p;faded 5p2nd
2025-10-04 KEE 1.06m Turf 10 8.0 79 90 2-3w;closer btw;faded
2025-09-04 KD 1m Turf 4 3.3 79 90 Inside;came out 1/8
2025-08-09 DMR 1m Dirt 6 40.5 45 98 Bpd early;3-4w;4w;easd
2025-07-19 DMR 1m Dirt 9 21.5 74 97 Rated2w;climbed;empty