John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 3

DR FENN

C '23 · CUPID × GONCHAROVA

Trainer: ENNIS JOHN · Jockey: SHEEHY DANNY

Today's prediction

71.5

Speed fig

29.3%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Distance Change From Last +0.31
  • Today Track Code +0.27
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.19
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.18
  • Today Post Position +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.09
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.97
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.47
  • Last Speed Fig -0.39
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.38

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 KEE 6.5f Dirt 6 23.3 54 83 Chased 5p; tired
2026-03-14 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 7.0 72 82 Brk out;cght 3/16;fade
2026-01-21 TP 6f Dirt 1 0.1 77 81 Ins;dueled;just lasted
2025-11-13 CD 6f Dirt 6 8.3 69 87 Ins wnnr;headd1/4;wknd
2025-11-05 CD 6f Dirt 1 2.0 81 75 Prmpt 3p;took over5/16
2025-10-15 KEE 6f Dirt 11 23.0 42 82 Bmpd btw;2wd btw;faded
2025-09-21 CD 6f Dirt 2 7.0 58 76 Ins;slip thru;ovrhauld
2025-07-19 ELP 5.5f Dirt 3 4.0 64 75 Prss 3p;vie btw1/4;yld
2025-06-19 CD 5.5f Dirt 5 10.5 52 75 Bmpd btw st;ins;tired