John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 1

COASTAL BREEZE

G '22 · BERNARDINI × HAWANA

Trainer: LAROSE KINNON · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

76.2

Speed fig

44.7%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Post Position +0.24
  • Distance Change From Last +0.20
  • Is Lone Speed +0.18
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.16
  • Today Track Code +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -0.42
  • Last Speed Fig -0.25
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.23
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.14
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 OP 6f Dirt 8 13.0 69 90 Track inside; gave way
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 7 7.0 77 90 Dueled 2p; gave way
2026-02-22 OP 6f Dirt 1 4.8 82 83 3-2p; roused1/4; clear
2026-02-13 OP 6f Dirt 1 1.5 83 75 2-3p;bid btw1/4;dug in
2026-01-04 OP 6f Dirt 7 9.0 73 81 Brief speed insde;fade
2025-12-14 OP 6f Dirt 3 4.3 73 75 Vied; gradual fade
2025-11-23 CD 6f Dirt 8 15.8 71 86 Broke out;4-5p;tired
2025-08-20 PID 6f Dirt 3 2.0 73 78 Hestitated;block rptd
2025-05-26 PID 6f Dirt 3 2.8 70 79 Bid upr; not enough