John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 6

CAROL'S MELODY

F '23 · SHANCELOT × EMPIRES ANSWER

Trainer: FOSTER ERIC · Jockey: SAEZ GABRIEL

Today's prediction

72.7

Speed fig

55.5%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.38
  • Today Track Code +0.34
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.32
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.26
  • Today Field Size +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.95
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.14
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.84
  • Tj Combo Roi 365d -0.48
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.42

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 KEE 7f Dirt 1 2.5 79 78 Trck 3-4p;bid;inch clr
2026-02-28 TP 6f Dirt 9 14.8 57 76 Chsd 5-3p;wknd btw3/16
2026-02-11 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 7.8 68 77 Bump st;keen;3-2p;stay
2026-01-17 TP 6f Dirt 1 1.0 67 72 4-3p;led upr;held sway
2025-12-10 TP 5f Dirt 3 6.3 72 70 Evenly; leveled off
2025-08-11 ELP 6f Dirt 9 30.5 20 71 Bmpd;brsh/rank9/16;wkn