John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 3

UP THE CREEK

M '21 · UPSTART × CLEARWATER

Trainer: WILLIAMS MATT · Jockey: TORRES CRISTIAN A

Scratched today

79.8

Speed fig

In-the-money

This horse was scratched and won't run today. Past-performance data below is unaffected.

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.19
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.68
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.39
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.30
  • Today Field Size +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.17
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.16
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.13
  • Last Finish Pos -0.12
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-22 OP 6f Dirt 7 8.8 80 88 Bump st; ins; gave way
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 7 7.0 72 91 3-4w 1/4;traffic;empty
2026-02-20 OP 6f Dirt 3 5.8 81 91 Rail;evenly;edged show
2025-11-05 CD 6f Dirt 4 8.5 74 86 4w; pass tired foe
2025-10-10 KEE 6.5f Dirt 4 2.5 84 88 4-6p;ran on;denied shw
2025-05-15 CD 6f Dirt 3 9.5 74 86 3p;5p1/4;moved up
2025-04-18 KEE 6.5f Dirt 1 6.0 94 80 2wbtw;bid 3w;kept task
2025-03-07 OP 6f Dirt 3 2.0 75 81 Steerd out;not enuf2nd
2024-12-21 OP 6f Dirt 5 8.5 72 87 One paced 4w
2024-11-21 CD 1m Dirt 5 13.0 72 80 Chased 2p; tired