Sun, May 17
Race 2
Clm 16000n2l
Post: 1:14 · 7f · Dirt · $36K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #4 TURKISH PISTACHIO (E, QSP 4)
- #6 BACHELOR PARTY (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 FERMI (EP, QSP 2)
- #7 VINNO RONNIE (E, QSP 2)
- #2 TRAJECT (E, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 2, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$92.48
mean $96.25
Expected ROI
-7.0%
net $-0.42
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 2, 6] — hits 5.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $92 (mean $96; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
2, 6, 4
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.6% | $28.68 | -54% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 8.0% | $55.27 | -50% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.5% | $78.88 | -40% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.4% | $64.54 | -47% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 19.0% | $67.56 | -29% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AEPFERMI | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 73.2 | 21% | 58% | ▼-15% |
| 2 | BETRAJECT | 10-1 | 12-1 | ·10-1 | 68.2 | 17% | 49% | ▲+25% |
| 6 | BEPBACHELOR PARTY | 2.0-1 | 2.2-1 | ↑3.5-1 | 66.7 | 15% | 45% | ▼-12% |
| 4 | BETURKISH PISTACHIO | 3.0-1 | 4.3-1 | ·3.0-1 | 69.6 | 14% | 42% | ▼-22% |
| 3 | CSQUIBBLE | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 66.3 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 7 | EVINNO RONNIE | 6.0-1 | 9.3-1 | ·6.0-1 | 66.4 | 12% | 38% | ·+1% |
| 8 | SMO INDIAN LADY | 10-1 | 16-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 62.8 | 9% | 30% | ▼-13% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.