John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 6

THRILLA

C '22 · PRESERVATIONIST × ROSE OF CAIRO

Trainer: ROMANS DALE · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

79.0

Speed fig

26.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.23
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.78
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.63
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.44
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Days Since Last Race -0.63
  • Last Finish Pos -0.37
  • Num Career Starts -0.35
  • Today Track Code -0.35
  • Starts Last 180d -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-01-01 TP 1m Dirt 12 14.3 74 92 2p;faded 4-5p btwn 2nd
2025-11-16 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 0.1 85 90 2w;btw;dueled ins;game
2025-10-11 KEE 6.5f Dirt 2 0.8 88 92 2wd btw;bid;led;bested
2025-06-11 CD 6f Dirt 7 10.5 71 88 Vied ins winner;wknd
2025-05-25 CD 6f Dirt 8 12.3 72 90 4p;6w upper; tired
2025-04-08 KEE 6f Dirt 2 3.8 87 90 3p;6p1/4;up place;held
2025-03-08 FG 6f Dirt 1 2.0 89 85 Ins-2p;bid 2w;inch clr
2025-02-08 FG 6f Dirt 6 9.5 76 90 Pull 2wbtw;checkd 7/16
2025-01-11 FG 6f Dirt 4 3.5 79 89 Blew start;7pupr;rally
2024-12-21 FG 6f Dirt 4 9.5 74 93 2w;3w upr;dueled show