John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 2

LEGITIMATE

G '22 · AUTHENTIC × AZARA

Trainer: MCGEE PAUL · Jockey: GARCIA MARTIN

Today's prediction

74.5

Speed fig

20.0%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.09
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.56
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.38
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.29
  • Today Post Position +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -0.97
  • Distance Change From Last -0.76
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.61
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.52
  • Today Track Code -0.35

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-27 SA 6.5f Turf 4 13.0 66 87 2w;crowded turn;wknd
2025-12-28 SA 6.5f Turf 8 6.0 81 90 2wd;lost path 3/16
2025-10-31 DMR 1m Dirt 10 12.5 80 93 Clear pace; gave in
2025-01-26 SA 1m Dirt 1 12.8 94 88 Open up early;widened
2024-12-01 DMR 1m Turf 3 5.8 83 81 Rated 2w;bid3/8;svd3rd
2024-10-27 SA 6f Dirt 5 10.0 72 90 Prss early;chs2-3w;wkn
2024-10-05 SA 1m Turf 6 4.0 80 85 2w;3deep5/16;no rally
2024-08-18 DMR 1m Turf 5 2.0 71 82 Stalk;prss2w;vie btwn
2024-07-27 DMR 1m Turf 4 6.8 69 82 2w;btw;traffic late2nd