John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 1

RUNNING AWAY

F '22 · GUN RUNNER × ALLEZ MARIE

Trainer: WARD WESLEY A · Jockey: CORRALES GERARDO

Today's prediction

89.4

Speed fig

56.9%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.44
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.41
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.11
  • Last Speed Fig +0.72
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.65

Pushing prediction down

  • Starts Last 180d -0.22
  • Num Career Starts -0.09
  • Field Early Speed Count -0.09
  • Mean Finish Pos Last 5 -0.09
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.06

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-17 KEE 1.06m Dirt 4 8.0 90 99 Ins-2p;yielded btw3/16
2025-09-10 KD 1.31m Turf 10 9.0 84 88 Rank1st turn;ins-2path
2025-07-26 MTH 1.06m Dirt 1 1.3 89 94 Bump st; bid turn
2025-05-14 IND 1.04m Dirt 1 4.5 77 81 3p;lugged3/16;drew off
2025-04-07 KEE 1.06m Dirt 8 32.3 55 100 Stalk 5-3w;wknd btw3/8
2025-01-18 AQU 1.13m Dirt 1 2.3 88 90 Bobbled brk;2p;respond
2024-11-30 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 5.0 86 81 3-2p;shook clear 1/8
2024-10-19 KEE 1m Turf 3 0.5 77 76 Clear;collared btw1/16
2024-07-21 SAR 1.06m Turf 2 0.5 81 79 2p;shook foe;caught