Fri, May 15
Race 9
OClm 100000n3x
Post: 4:55 · 1m · Turf · $141K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 TARANTINO (E, QSP 8)
- #9 IDRATHERBEBLESSED (E, QSP 7)
- #3 SILENT HEART (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 SMOKEY MANDATE (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 LEGALIZE (E, QSP 5)
- #8 JUDGE DAVIS (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 8, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$61.68
mean $62.18
Expected ROI
-84.5%
net $-5.07
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [8, 3, 5] — hits 1.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $62 (mean $62; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
3, 5, 2
C Value-edge longshots
6, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.5% | $52.28 | -87% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 2.6% | $52.92 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.9% | $53.33 | -84% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.7% | $53.33 | -86% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.5% | $84.56 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AEPJUDGE DAVIS | 3.0-1 | 2.2-1 | 91.1 | 14% | 40% | ▼-24% |
| 3 | BEPSILENT HEART | 5.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 89.6 | 11% | 33% | ▼-9% |
| 5 | BEPSMOKEY MANDATE | 4.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 90.7 | 10% | 31% | ▼-20% |
| 2 | BELEGALIZE | 4.5-1 | 5.0-1 | 88.0 | 10% | 31% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | PANDTHEWINNERIS | 8.0-1 | 9.3-1 | 90.0 | 10% | 30% | ·+2% |
| 1 | SBABY MAX | 12-1 | 14-1 | 91.0 | 10% | 30% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | PASTRONOMER | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 89.5 | 10% | 30% | ·+2% |
| 9 | CEIDRATHERBEBLESSED | 20-1 | 27-1 | 89.0 | 9% | 27% | ▲+15% |
| 6 | CPSECRET CHAT | 30-1 | 39-1 | 85.1 | 8% | 24% | ▲+16% |
| 7 | ETARANTINO | 8.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 23% | ·-5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.