Fri, May 15
Race 3
Alw 12500s
Post: 1:43 · 6f · Dirt · $60K purse · 4 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 4 of 4 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
4 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 AIR OF DEFIANCE (E, QSP 6)
- #1 HIGHLY FLAMMABLE (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPHIGHLY FLAMMABLE | 8.0-1 | 7.3-1 | ↓3.5-1 | 87.1 | 35% | 88% | ▲+31% |
| 2 | EAIR OF DEFIANCE | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | ↓1.6-1 | 87.3 | 32% | 86% | ▼-12% |
| 4 | PNATION | 4.0-1 | 4.4-1 | ↓0.8-1 | 79.3 | 17% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 5 | PUPTURNED BRIM | 15-1 | 20-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 79.0 | 16% | 62% | ▲+31% |
| 3 | SCREPLORD MAJESTY | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRSTIVERTON | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCREPGET HER NUMBER | 0.8-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.