John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 2

AIR OF DEFIANCE

G '21 · QUALITY ROAD × FAYPIEN

Trainer: CUNNINGHAM S JADE · Jockey: SAEZ GABRIEL

Today's prediction

87.3

Speed fig

85.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.22
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.98
  • Last Speed Fig +0.94
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.82
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.69

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.18
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.11
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.11
  • Class Par Trend -0.09
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-22 KEE 7f Dirt 3 2.3 97 89 Prss wnnr 3p;yield plc
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 2 0.5 87 91 Pace inside;stubborn
2026-02-05 OP 6f Dirt 1 0.3 94 90 Vied2p;btwn5/16;dug in
2025-11-08 CD 7f Dirt 3 2.3 81 87 Stalk; duel; out-fin
2025-10-11 KEE 6.5f Dirt 4 2.0 86 92 Chs ins;2w1/8;need mor
2025-09-11 CD 1m Dirt 1 3.5 89 83 Ins pair;cleared upper
2025-08-04 ELP 1m Dirt 1 0.5 87 88 Press 2w;bid btw;held
2025-07-03 ELP 1m Dirt 1 5.8 82 80 Vie 3w;drw off;rdn out
2025-06-18 CD 6f Dirt 4 14.8 73 85 Lean out/chck st;4p;im
2025-05-10 CD 6.5f Dirt 6 20.5 65 86 Rush;vied ins duo;wknd