Fri, May 15
Race 2
Md 50000
Post: 1:14 · 1.06m · Dirt · $67K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 WATERSHED MOMENT (E, QSP 8)
- #6 BUCKEYE BOMBSHELL (E, QSP 4)
- #2 RIVER RISE (E, QSP 4)
1 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 6, 4, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$12.19
mean $13.93
Expected ROI
-85.7%
net $-5.14
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 4, 1] — hits 6.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $12 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
6, 4
B Contenders
1, 7, 2
C Value-edge longshots
3, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.9% | $11.56 | -87% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.7% | $12.92 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.9% | $12.92 | -84% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.2% | $19.81 | -81% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 19.5% | $13.29 | -79% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEBUCKEYE BOMBSHELL | 1.4-1 | 1.4-1 | ↓1.0-1 | 73.7 | 18% | 52% | ▼-48% |
| 4 | AEWATERSHED MOMENT | 3.0-1 | 3.9-1 | ·2.5-1 | 74.6 | 18% | 52% | ▼-21% |
| 1 | BPIN FOR A SPIN | 3.5-1 | 4.4-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 75.0 | 17% | 49% | ·+3% |
| 7 | BPSHE'S GOTTA GO | 4.5-1 | 6.3-1 | ·5.0-1 | 73.2 | 16% | 48% | ▲+5% |
| 2 | BERIVER RISE | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | ↑16-1 | 72.2 | 11% | 36% | ▲+21% |
| 5 | CPSOUPERRAZZLEDAZZLE | 20-1 | 34-1 | ↓12-1 | 68.5 | 11% | 35% | ▲+16% |
| 3 | CLUCK OF THE DAY | 30-1 | 57-1 | ↑42-1 | 65.5 | 8% | 28% | ▲+22% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.