Fri, May 15
Race 4
Md Sp Wt
Post: 2:13 · 5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersUnprojectable
7 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
7 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
5-horse A,B,C box on posts 2, 9, 5, 4, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
21.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$148.39
mean $320.19
Expected ROI
+12.7%
net $7.64
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse A,B,C box on posts [2, 9, 5, 4, 7] — hits 21.1% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $148 (mean $320; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
9, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.1% | $180.07 | -7% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 4.4% | $70.60 | -16% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.4% | $70.60 | -31% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.9% | $70.60 | -41% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 10.9% | $76.33 | -30% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | APSMOKE | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 72.6 | 18% | 51% | ·+4% |
| 9 | BEPIC SPENDER | 3.5-1 | 4.1-1 | 68.8 | 13% | 40% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | BMARGIE'S GIRL | 15-1 | 22-1 | 69.5 | 13% | 39% | ▲+23% |
| 4 | BLOOKIN' PRETTY | 6.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 69.2 | 12% | 38% | ·+1% |
| 8 | LADY CHANEL | 2.5-1 | 2.8-1 | 67.9 | 12% | 37% | ▼-36% |
| 1 | PIERETTE | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 68.3 | 12% | 36% | ·-0% |
| 6 | LUMINOUS BEAUTY | 8.0-1 | 15-1 | 66.2 | 10% | 31% | ·+2% |
| 7 | CTUXCA | 30-1 | 62-1 | 64.5 | 9% | 29% | ▲+21% |
| 3 | SCRROCK YOUR DREAMS | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.