Fri, May 15
Race 1
Md 12500
Post: 12:45 · 1.06m · Dirt · $35K purse · 6 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 6 of 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersLone speed
One pure-E runner, no EP pressers — likely uncontested early lead, favors the front-runner.
Projected speed
- #2 FITZGERALD (E, QSP 5)
3 of 6 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 1, 2, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
11.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.57
mean $19.74
Expected ROI
-63.9%
net $-3.84
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 1, 2, 6] — hits 11.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $20; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
1, 2, 6
C Value-edge longshots
4, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 10.6% | $13.57 | -76% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 18.3% | $27.14 | -57% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 18.7% | $27.14 | -58% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 19.5% | $13.57 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 26.1% | $27.24 | -51% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ACARCAR EXPRESS | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1 | ↑2.0-1 | 68.2 | 26% | 69% | ▼-16% |
| 1 | BPBIG ROG | 3.5-1 | 4.9-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 66.4 | 18% | 55% | ▼-30% |
| 2 | BEFITZGERALD | 2.0-1 | 2.7-1 | ↑2.5-1 | 63.6 | 17% | 52% | ▼-21% |
| 6 | BSWEEKEND REVEILLE | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 65.9 | 16% | 50% | ▲+7% |
| 5 | CPAIRED | 12-1 | 19-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 59.4 | 12% | 40% | ▲+8% |
| 4 | CTHE REINBOW FACTOR | 20-1 | 44-1 | ↓13-1 | 58.6 | 10% | 34% | ▲+16% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.