John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 2

FITZGERALD

G '23 · BY MY STANDARDS × GEEBES

Trainer: MOQUETT RONALD E · Jockey: BEJARANO R

Today's prediction

63.6

Speed fig

51.9%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.29
  • Today Post Position +0.28
  • Field Size Change From Last +0.27
  • Weight Change From Last +0.25
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -8.66
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.64
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.45
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.04
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.70

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 OP 1m Dirt 2 3.5 67 76 2p;lost ld3/8;5p upper
2026-03-20 OP 1.06m Dirt 5 26.3 40 76 Bump st; 2p; drift out
2026-02-20 OP 1.06m Dirt 6 10.3 64 77 Bmp btw st;2-4p;no bid
2025-12-27 OP 6f Dirt 7 11.5 64 77 Shuffled 7/16;improved
2025-10-11 KEE 6.5f Dirt 8 23.0 51 89 6-4p;shied 1/4;improvd