Sun, May 10
Race 9
Clm 80000n2l
Post: 4:56 · 1m · Dirt · $82K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 SHOW OF FORCE (EP, QSP 8)
- #6 WHITE WHALE (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 MIRACLE MARK (E, QSP 6)
- #2 GETHSEMANE (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 BIG GARRY (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 START MO UP (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 1, 9, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$9.37
mean $15.58
Expected ROI
-83.6%
net $-5.01
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 1, 9, 7] — hits 6.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $9 (mean $16; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2, 1
B Contenders
9, 7, 6
C Value-edge longshots
8, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.7% | $8.20 | -91% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.2% | $9.37 | -78% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.5% | $8.20 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 15.5% | $17.94 | -74% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 23.1% | $10.39 | -80% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPGETHSEMANE | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | 82.3 | 20% | 56% | ▼-17% |
| 1 | AEMIRACLE MARK | 1.8-1 | 1.7-1 | 81.9 | 18% | 52% | ▼-39% |
| 9 | BPHOT PROPERTY | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | 78.0 | 16% | 48% | ·+2% |
| 7 | BEPSHOW OF FORCE | 15-1 | 15-1 | 81.4 | 15% | 46% | ▲+30% |
| 6 | BEPWHITE WHALE | 10-1 | 15-1 | 79.2 | 13% | 39% | ▲+16% |
| 4 | CEPBIG GARRY | 20-1 | 27-1 | 73.5 | 9% | 31% | ▲+18% |
| 8 | CESTART MO UP | 30-1 | 41-1 | 73.2 | 9% | 29% | ▲+20% |
| 3 | SCRPADMIRAL HALL | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCREPCLOCKER SPECIAL | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.