Sun, May 10
Race 10
Md Sp Wt
Post: 5:27 · 1.13m · Turf · $120K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersSoft pace
Only one early type; pace likely slow, helps anyone close to the leader.
Projected speed
- #6 EMERALD SPUN (EP, QSP 4)
5 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
7-horse A,B,C box on posts 8, 7, 6, 12, 3, 5, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$210.00
210 combos
Hit prob
31.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$228.50
mean $689.72
Expected ROI
+3.5%
net $7.30
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 7-horse A,B,C box on posts [8, 7, 6, 12, 3, 5, 4] — hits 31.5% of simulated runs
- · At $210 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $229 (mean $690; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 7
B Contenders
6, 12, 3
C Value-edge longshots
5, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.7% | $85.92 | -71% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.7% | $96.03 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.4% | $94.87 | -61% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.0% | $94.87 | -63% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $30.00 | 5.9% | $165.04 | -36% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ASAMERICAN DEBUTANTE | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | 78.0 | 13% | 39% | ▼-34% |
| 7 | ASLADY SYBIL | 12-1 | 14-1 | 77.4 | 12% | 36% | ▲+16% |
| 6 | BEPEMERALD SPUN | 8.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 76.9 | 12% | 34% | ▲+6% |
| 12 | BSTULIP | 12-1 | 16-1 | 75.1 | 11% | 33% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | BPONE HAPPY ISLAND | 20-1 | 33-1 | 75.7 | 9% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | EMPRESS SISI | 15-1 | 30-1 | 75.1 | 8% | 26% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | CPBIRCH RUN | 30-1 | 57-1 | 75.3 | 8% | 25% | ▲+17% |
| 10 | ELIDA'S ANGEL | 5.0-1 | 4.9-1 | 68.0 | 7% | 23% | ▼-20% |
| 14 | JUST ENTITLED | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 68.5 | 7% | 21% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | CWUJOOD | 30-1 | 39-1 | 72.6 | 7% | 21% | ▲+12% |
| 1 | MUNNY REIGNS | 20-1 | 35-1 | 68.5 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 9 | SCRSTHAT WASN'T ME | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCREPPRIVATE PROPERTY | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCRSWONZEE WEATHER | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRIN SPEIGHT OF ZOOM | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRSCHARTED DESTINY | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.