Sun, May 10
Race 8
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 4:23 · 1m · Turf · $127K purse · 12 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 12 of 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 SUNSHINE DAYDREAM (EP, QSP 7)
- #11 BETTY'S DANCE (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 COMPETITIVE MARKET (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 GERLIN'S EMPIRE (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 BOJACA BLESSING (EP, QSP 4)
1 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$189.46
mean $199.13
Expected ROI
-3.6%
net $-0.22
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 1, 5] — hits 2.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $189 (mean $199; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 1
B Contenders
5, 3, 7
C Value-edge longshots
8, 10
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.7% | $51.67 | -58% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.8% | $117.02 | -49% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.2% | $51.67 | -66% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.7% | $94.73 | -57% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 9.3% | $57.72 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPBOJACA BLESSING | 8.0-1 | 6.9-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 83.4 | 16% | 45% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | AEPCOMPETITIVE MARKET | 3.5-1 | 3.3-1 | ·3.0-1 | 81.2 | 15% | 43% | ▼-21% |
| 5 | BEPSUNSHINE DAYDREAM | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | ↑10-1 | 81.3 | 12% | 37% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | BPPRINCESS ATTITUDE | 4.5-1 | 5.7-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 83.9 | 11% | 33% | ▼-52% |
| 7 | BPPRINCESS EM TOO | 10-1 | 11-1 | ·9.0-1 | 82.2 | 10% | 31% | ▲+6% |
| 12 | EPTOTALLY JUSTIFIED | 5.0-1 | 7.3-1 | ·4.5-1 | 83.4 | 7% | 23% | ▼-23% |
| 11 | EPBETTY'S DANCE | 12-1 | 14-1 | ↑18-1 | 75.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+9% |
| 8 | CEPGERLIN'S EMPIRE | 12-1 | 15-1 | ↑65-1 | 77.7 | 6% | 20% | ▲+16% |
| 4 | PWINNING STREEP | 12-1 | 18-1 | ↑27-1 | 76.2 | 6% | 18% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | CPSWING VOTE | 15-1 | 20-1 | ↑34-1 | 76.6 | 5% | 17% | ▲+9% |
| 9 | PTEMPLE GODDESS | 30-1 | 68-1 | ↑55-1 | 75.6 | 3% | 10% | ▲+5% |
| 13 | STATE OF JOY | 20-1 | 43-1 | ↑33-1 | 42.4 | 0% | 2% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | SCREPTETIAROA | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRSICONA | 3.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRPMORANA | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRESPA PROSPECTOR | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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