John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 1

COMPETITIVE MARKET

F '22 · AUTHENTIC × CAJUN DELTA DAWN

Trainer: BROWN CHAD C · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

81.2

Speed fig

42.9%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.58
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.62
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.59
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.53
  • Today Track Code +0.32

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.02
  • Today Field Size -0.91
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.43
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.18
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.17

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 1.13m Turf 4 4.5 82 86 Prss 2wbtw;yield;kpton
2025-06-20 MTH 1.06m Turf 2 0.8 87 82 3w bid turn; dug in
2024-10-25 BAQ 1.06m Turf 1 0.8 82 73 In hand inside; game
2024-09-15 BAQ 1.06m Turf 2 0.8 79 77 Off 1/2 slw; mild kick