John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 5

DISCOTHEQUE

G '22 · CONNECT × NEW HOPE ROAD

Trainer: SWEEZEY J KENT · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

77.9

Speed fig

38.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +0.90
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.55
  • Class Par Trend +0.31
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.23
  • Weight Change From Last +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.31
  • Today Field Size -0.24
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.21
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.13
  • Best Finish Pos Career -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 1.06m Dirt 2 0.5 82 88 Ins winner;dueld;bestd
2026-03-05 TP 1m Dirt 2 2.0 83 81 3p;ran on;kept at bay
2025-11-23 CD 6f Dirt 5 13.5 75 86 Pressed 2wd btw;tired
2025-11-08 CD 6.5f Dirt 5 17.5 65 89 Rated ins; trailed 1/4
2025-08-27 SAR 6.5f Dirt 2 0.3 86 77 Bmp brk;ins5/16;5p1/4
2025-07-30 SAR 6f Dirt 2 3.5 82 76 Stumbled st; ran on
2025-06-20 BAQ 6f Turf 7 7.5 74 86 Outside;3p turn;tired
2025-05-15 BAQ 6f Dirt 2 0.8 84 86 2p turn;led past1/16
2025-04-06 GP 5.5f Dirt 2 2.3 83 90 3-4p;chase home winner
2025-02-22 TP 6.5f Dirt 2 2.8 71 85 3w speed/led/run down