John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 7

AUTHENTIC PATRIOT

C '23 · AUTHENTIC × FRONT RANGE

Trainer: BAFFERT BOB · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

84.3

Speed fig

52.5%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.82
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.71
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.86
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.76
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.75

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.43
  • Today Field Size -0.32
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.17
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.14
  • Today Post Position -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-02 SA 1m Dirt 3 2.0 88 94 Speed2path;ins;yielded
2026-02-20 SA 1m Dirt 3 5.0 86 94 Speed;duel ins;flatten
2025-11-22 DMR 6.5f Dirt 6 6.8 80 90 Led;vie ins;yielde3/16