John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R12

PP 4

LITMUS TEST

C '23 · NYQUIST × STUDY HARD

Trainer: BAFFERT BOB · Jockey: GARCIA MARTIN

Today's prediction

86.7

Speed fig

9.4%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.06
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +2.19
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.41
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.37
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.86

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.21
  • Today Field Size -1.18
  • Today Track Code -0.64
  • Today Weight -0.64
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.35

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-28 OP 1.13m Dirt 7 12.5 83 102 Slip brk;4w;lttle left
2026-03-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 3 5.3 87 98 Legit pace;no mtchtop2
2025-12-13 LRC 1.06m Dirt 1 1.3 90 97 Stalk;bid outside;best
2025-10-31 DMR 1.06m Dirt 4 1.8 102 97 Failed to make headway
2025-10-04 KEE 1.06m Dirt 3 5.0 91 97 Ins winner; yielded
2025-09-07 DMR 7f Dirt 4 4.3 92 97 5-3w;drft in/bp midstr
2025-08-16 DMR 5.5f Dirt 1 0.8 90 90 Btw;2-3w;led;hld well