John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R12

PP 16

PAVLOVIAN

C '23 · PAVEL × MANDY'S GRACE

Trainer: O'NEILL DOUG · Jockey: MALDONADO E

Today's prediction

83.2

Speed fig

11.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.73
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.03
  • Last Speed Fig +0.71
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.69
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.58

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.38
  • Field Size Change From Last -1.26
  • Today Track Code -0.86
  • Today Weight -0.62
  • Today Post Position -0.38

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 FG 1.19m Dirt 2 0.1 101 97 Pace;met bid;gamely
2026-02-15 SUN 1.06m Dirt 1 0.1 95 94 Pressed;wore down foe
2026-01-17 SA 1.06m Dirt 3 3.3 84 91 Brk in/bpd;3-2w;5-4w
2025-12-14 LRC 1m Dirt 4 7.0 85 83 Hop/bp;4w-ins;rail bid
2025-10-31 DMR 7f Dirt 86 Hop;stmbld;lost rider
2025-10-04 SA 6.5f Dirt 2 1.8 83 80 Btwn;2w-ins;gained2nd
2025-09-05 DMR 5.5f Dirt 7 9.5 69 88 5-4wide; no menace
2025-08-09 DMR 6f Dirt 2 8.8 79 96 3deep;floatd5w;gain2nd
2025-06-15 SA 5f Dirt 1 0.5 82 81 2w;angld5w;closed well
2025-05-25 SA 4.5f Dirt 2 1.5 71 87 Rail;shifted late turn