Sat, May 2
Race 13
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 8:00 · 6.5f · Dirt · $127K purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 HEARTILY (E, QSP 6)
- #11 NOBLE AFFAIR (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 RED LAD (E, QSP 5)
- #4 RING CURL (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 11, 10, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$29.03
mean $47.90
Expected ROI
-64.6%
net $-3.88
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 11, 10, 1] — hits 4.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $29 (mean $48; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
11, 10, 1
C Value-edge longshots
9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.5% | $29.03 | -71% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 6.0% | $57.67 | -60% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.4% | $37.37 | -60% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.4% | $38.83 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.0% | $50.80 | -63% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | APGILDED BANDIT | 3.0-1 | 2.2-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 90.0 | 21% | 55% | ▼-30% |
| 11 | BEPNOBLE AFFAIR | 4.5-1 | 3.2-1 | ·4.5-1 | 86.3 | 17% | 49% | ·+2% |
| 10 | BPBUETANE | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | ·3.0-1 | 89.4 | 14% | 42% | ▼-22% |
| 1 | BPSMALL TOWN | 8.0-1 | 7.7-1 | ↑11-1 | 83.4 | 10% | 32% | ▲+11% |
| 5 | PHULKAMANIA | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 82.3 | 9% | 30% | ▼-7% |
| 9 | CPTHUNDER BUCK | 15-1 | 14-1 | ·15-1 | 82.0 | 9% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 2 | EHEARTILY | 12-1 | 15-1 | ·10-1 | 78.2 | 7% | 23% | ·+0% |
| 7 | SSAV'N MONEY | 20-1 | 32-1 | ·17-1 | 75.9 | 5% | 17% | ·+2% |
| 4 | ERING CURL | 15-1 | 27-1 | ↑25-1 | 74.6 | 5% | 16% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | ERED LAD | 30-1 | 66-1 | ·25-1 | 65.3 | 2% | 8% | ·-2% |
| 6 | SCRPCRUISIN CHUCK | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 13 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.