Fri, May 1
Race 9
Alysheba-G2
Post: 5:12 · 1.06m · Dirt · $750K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 NU WHAT'S NEW (E, QSP 8)
- #3 GRANDE (E, QSP 6)
- #5 EAST AVENUE (E, QSP 6)
- #7 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 2, 3, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$149.97
mean $159.04
Expected ROI
+26.4%
net $1.58
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 3, 6] — hits 4.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $150 (mean $159; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 3
B Contenders
6, 8, 7
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 17.4% | $103.69 | -7% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.6% | $57.55 | -34% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.1% | $83.69 | -19% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.8% | $22.33 | -72% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 12.9% | $36.47 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | APBAEZA | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | ·2.0-1 | 97.9 | 17% | 50% | ▼-35% |
| 3 | AEGRANDE | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 96.9 | 17% | 48% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | BENU WHAT'S NEW | 8.0-1 | 7.3-1 | ↑12-1 | 95.6 | 16% | 46% | ▲+27% |
| 8 | BPCORPORATE POWER | 10-1 | 9.1-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 94.3 | 15% | 44% | ·+2% |
| 7 | BEPSKIPPYLONGSTOCKING | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 94.9 | 14% | 42% | ▼-49% |
| 5 | CEEAST AVENUE | 12-1 | 12-1 | ·13-1 | 92.5 | 11% | 35% | ▲+17% |
| 4 | PTAPPAN STREET | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 92.1 | 11% | 34% | ·+3% |
| 1 | SCREPNAVAJO WARRIOR | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCREPDISRUPTOR | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.