John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 5

DISRUPTOR

C '22 · GUN RUNNER × MARGATE GARDENS

Trainer: PLETCHER TODD A · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

94.6

Speed fig

33.6%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.00
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.33
  • Last Speed Fig +1.46
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.36
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.30

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.23
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.12
  • Today Track Code -0.12
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.11
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-07 TAM 1.06m Dirt 1 1.0 103 99 2-3p;dug in;edge clr
2026-01-31 TAM 7f Dirt 1 3.5 94 87 4p;bid1/4;kick clear
2025-03-29 GP 1.13m Dirt 5 10.5 83 103 Pinched st;2w;6w 3/16
2025-03-01 GP 7f Dirt 1 9.3 94 90 Chase;3p;drift;drw off
2025-01-25 GP 7f Dirt 3 2.0 86 90 3-2p;clear1/8;caught