Fri, May 1
Race 10
Modesty-G3
Post: 6:01 · 1.13m · Turf · $500K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 STYLISH SUE (EP, QSP 8)
- #5 KATHYNMARISSA (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 RAMSEY POND (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 3, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$10.05
mean $14.42
Expected ROI
-91.9%
net $-5.51
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 3, 5, 2] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $10 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 3
B Contenders
5, 2, 1
C Value-edge longshots
7, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.4% | $12.17 | -93% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.3% | $14.18 | -87% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.5% | $14.18 | -90% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 9.8% | $18.81 | -84% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 12.1% | $18.81 | -84% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APGEZORA | 0.8-1 | 0.7-1 | ·0.8-1 | 93.2 | 16% | 46% | ▼-54% |
| 3 | APWHISKEY DECISION | 4.0-1 | 3.4-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 92.5 | 15% | 44% | ▼-20% |
| 5 | BEPKATHYNMARISSA | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 92.1 | 14% | 41% | ·-1% |
| 2 | BPPROCTOR STREET | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | ↑9.0-1 | 91.2 | 13% | 40% | ▲+14% |
| 1 | BEPRAMSEY POND | 30-1 | 41-1 | ·28-1 | 89.7 | 12% | 37% | ▲+28% |
| 7 | CSDONA CLOTA | 20-1 | 25-1 | ·20-1 | 89.5 | 11% | 35% | ▲+23% |
| 4 | CEPSTYLISH SUE | 20-1 | 29-1 | ↓15-1 | 87.5 | 10% | 30% | ▲+14% |
| 10 | SQUEENS COMMAND | 50-1 | 57-1 | ↓20-1 | 85.7 | 8% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 8 | SCRSPIN UP BETTY | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRPADRASTEIA | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.