Derby 2026
← Race

PP 2

BAEZA

C '22 · MCKINZIE × PUCA

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

97.2

Speed fig

40.3%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.97
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.45
  • Max Speed Fig Career +1.44
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.00
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.75

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.16
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.06
  • BRIS Dirt Pedigree -0.04
  • Run Style P -0.01
  • Run Style EP -0.00

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-11-01 DMR 1.25m Dirt 6 9.5 105 105 Hop;3-2w;5-4w;flatten
2025-09-20 PRX 1.13m Dirt 1 2.3 106 103 3p;bid4w;mild drive
2025-07-26 SAR 1.13m Dirt 2 1.0 104 97 Carry 4w 1/2; 2nd best
2025-06-07 SAR 1.25m Dirt 3 6.5 104 102 5-6w upper; kept on
2025-05-03 CD 1.25m Dirt 3 1.8 102 102 Stdy btw5/16;9p1/8;bid
2025-04-05 SA 1.13m Dirt 2 0.8 107 103 4w;bid3w2nd;led;gamely
2025-02-14 SA 1m Dirt 1 4.8 98 94 4-2w;prss;clr;drftd in
2025-01-04 SA 1m Dirt 2 7.0 88 94 Stalked3wd;bested rest
2024-12-01 DMR 1m Turf 9 8.8 79 81 Steadied early;2-3wide