Derby 2026
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PP 8

MOON SPUN

M '21 · HARD SPUN × MOONLIT BAY

Trainer: LYNCH BRIAN A · Jockey: CASTELLANO J J

Today's prediction

91.9

Speed fig

34.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.92
  • Max Speed Fig Career +1.28
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.46
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.42
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.38

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.30
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean -0.22
  • BRIS Dirt Pedigree -0.10
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree -0.05
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.01

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-14 GP 5f Dirt 8 4.0 85 91 Vied;relented ins;wknd
2026-02-07 GP 5f Turf 1 3.3 94 91 Rail; pace; drift out
2025-12-27 GP 5f Turf 1 0.3 86 91 Duel;bid2w;came3w;held
2025-11-27 GP 5f Dirt 1 3.0 92 88 2p;roused1/8;drw away
2024-10-16 KEE 5.5f Turf 1 2.0 88 86 Prompt 2wd;cleared upr
2024-08-29 KD 6.5f Turf 3 1.3 87 86 Ins spd;drift str;game
2024-06-15 CD 5.5f Turf 2 0.8 85 86 Ins;2-3p;bid;led;cght
2024-05-16 CD 5f Turf 2 3.5 85 86 4p;5p1/4;flop lds;rlly
2024-03-29 GP 5f Turf 1 0.3 78 81 Rail; 3w 3/16; up late
2024-03-08 GP 5f Dirt 2 0.3 80 81 Prompt 4path; gaining