John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 10

STAR ACTRESS

F '23 · JUSTIFY × STAR ACT

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

85.0

Speed fig

38.2%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.39
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.71
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.68
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.57
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.46

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.47
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.34
  • Today Post Position -0.29
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.26
  • Today Field Size -0.20

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 1.06m Dirt 3 5.8 83 99 Ins;4-5p2nd;stayed on
2026-03-15 GP 1.06m Dirt 1 1.0 85 81 Btwn far;bid2w;driving
2026-02-08 GP 7f Dirt 2 0.5 83 85 Swung out 3/16; surged