John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R11

PP 7

CHASTEN

F '22 · INTO MISCHIEF × LOCKDOWN

Trainer: COX BRAD H · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

89.5

Speed fig

30.5%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.41
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.74
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.08
  • Last Speed Fig +0.89
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.86

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.30
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate -0.28
  • Today Track Code -0.25
  • Today Field Size -0.22
  • Today Post Position -0.20

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-14 CNL 1m Dirt 1 0.5 99 92 Determined 3 wide bid
2026-01-10 FG 1.04m Dirt 1 1.0 88 87 Slow; trail; 6wbid; up
2025-06-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 7 7.5 82 87 Tad slow st; trailed
2025-05-02 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 7.0 89 87 Bid 3/8; back for plc
2025-01-18 FG 1.04m Dirt 4 5.8 89 90 Tugged ins; gave way
2024-11-30 CD 7f Dirt 1 1.5 84 81 Bmpd btwst;5p3/8;grind