John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R11

PP 5

SHRED THE GNAR

F '22 · INTO MISCHIEF × ASPEN LIGHT

Trainer: LYNCH BRIAN A · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

92.0

Speed fig

34.7%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.01
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.37
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.44
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.93
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.72

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Track Code -0.34
  • Today Field Size -0.25
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.18
  • Last Btn Lengths -0.14
  • Last Finish Pos -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-02-14 GP 1.06m Dirt 6 19.0 77 96 Bump 3x early;stdy 1/4
2025-11-15 CD 1m Dirt 1 2.8 99 96 Rail;edged away;drivng
2025-05-02 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 7.0 97 87 Repelld bid;ridden out
2025-03-16 GP 1m Dirt 1 6.5 91 81 Svd gnd;in command
2025-02-09 GP 6f Dirt 2 0.3 88 86 Rail; 2w 3/16; gaining