Thu, Apr 30
Race 10
StMatthwsB200k
Post: 5:50 · 6f · Dirt · $200K purse · 44 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
44 runnersHot pace
32 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 CONCRETE GLORY (E, QSP 8)
- #1 CONCRETE GLORY (E, QSP 8)
- #1 CONCRETE GLORY (E, QSP 8)
- #1 CONCRETE GLORY (E, QSP 8)
- #9 MAXIMUM BOURBON (E, QSP 7)
- #9 MAXIMUM BOURBON (E, QSP 7)
- #9 MAXIMUM BOURBON (E, QSP 7)
- #9 MAXIMUM BOURBON (E, QSP 7)
- #10 JACK'S PROMISE (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 JACK'S PROMISE (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 JACK'S PROMISE (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 JACK'S PROMISE (EP, QSP 6)
- #8 BOURBON BASH (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 BOURBON BASH (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 BOURBON BASH (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 BOURBON BASH (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 WENDELSSOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 WENDELSSOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 WENDELSSOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 WENDELSSOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 BUILT (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 BUILT (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 BUILT (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 BUILT (EP, QSP 5)
- #5 LOFTY ADJUDICATOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 LOFTY ADJUDICATOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 LOFTY ADJUDICATOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 LOFTY ADJUDICATOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #6 BACK EM UP (EP, QSP 3)
- #6 BACK EM UP (EP, QSP 3)
- #6 BACK EM UP (EP, QSP 3)
- #6 BACK EM UP (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 3
B Contenders
3, 3, 9
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BPBE YOU | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 93.4 | 4% | 11% | ▼-40% |
| 3 | BPBE YOU | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 93.4 | 4% | 11% | ▼-40% |
| 3 | BPBE YOU | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 93.4 | 4% | 11% | ▼-40% |
| 3 | BPBE YOU | 4.0-1 | 4.4-1 | 93.3 | 3% | 10% | ▼-41% |
| 9 | BEMAXIMUM BOURBON | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 90.2 | 3% | 9% | ▼-38% |
| 9 | BEMAXIMUM BOURBON | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 90.2 | 3% | 9% | ▼-38% |
| 9 | BEMAXIMUM BOURBON | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 90.2 | 3% | 9% | ▼-38% |
| 1 | ECONCRETE GLORY | 8.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 90.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 1 | ECONCRETE GLORY | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 90.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 1 | ECONCRETE GLORY | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 90.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 1 | ECONCRETE GLORY | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 90.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-20% |
| 9 | BEMAXIMUM BOURBON | 4.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 90.5 | 3% | 8% | ▼-38% |
| 8 | EPBOURBON BASH | 10-1 | 13-1 | 90.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-15% |
| 8 | EPBOURBON BASH | 10-1 | 13-1 | 90.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-15% |
| 8 | EPBOURBON BASH | 10-1 | 13-1 | 90.3 | 3% | 8% | ▼-15% |
| 8 | EPBOURBON BASH | 10-1 | 13-1 | 89.9 | 2% | 7% | ▼-16% |
| 7 | EPWENDELSSOHN | 12-1 | 16-1 | 90.6 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 7 | EPWENDELSSOHN | 12-1 | 16-1 | 90.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 7 | EPWENDELSSOHN | 12-1 | 16-1 | 90.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 7 | EPWENDELSSOHN | 12-1 | 16-1 | 90.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | EPBACK EM UP | 6.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 88.7 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 6 | EPBACK EM UP | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 88.6 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 6 | EPBACK EM UP | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 88.6 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 6 | EPBACK EM UP | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 88.6 | 2% | 7% | ▼-30% |
| 2 | EPBUILT | 3.0-1 | 3.7-1 | 89.0 | 2% | 6% | ▼-57% |
| 2 | EPBUILT | 3.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 88.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 2 | EPBUILT | 3.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 88.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 2 | EPBUILT | 3.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 88.8 | 2% | 6% | ▼-58% |
| 10 | EPJACK'S PROMISE | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 87.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | EPJACK'S PROMISE | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 87.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | EPJACK'S PROMISE | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 87.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | EPJACK'S PROMISE | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 87.6 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 5 | EPLOFTY ADJUDICATOR | 30-1 | 45-1 | 87.9 | 2% | 6% | ·-3% |
| 5 | EPLOFTY ADJUDICATOR | 30-1 | 45-1 | 87.9 | 2% | 6% | ·-3% |
| 5 | EPLOFTY ADJUDICATOR | 30-1 | 45-1 | 87.9 | 2% | 6% | ·-3% |
| 5 | EPLOFTY ADJUDICATOR | 30-1 | 45-1 | 87.9 | 2% | 6% | ·-3% |
| 4 | PBILLAL | 20-1 | 34-1 | 84.6 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | PBILLAL | 20-1 | 35-1 | 84.7 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | PBILLAL | 20-1 | 35-1 | 84.7 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | PBILLAL | 20-1 | 35-1 | 84.7 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 11 | PAIR INVASION | 30-1 | 57-1 | 80.2 | 1% | 4% | ·-5% |
| 11 | PAIR INVASION | 30-1 | 57-1 | 80.2 | 1% | 4% | ·-5% |
| 11 | PAIR INVASION | 30-1 | 57-1 | 80.2 | 1% | 4% | ·-5% |
| 11 | PAIR INVASION | 30-1 | 57-1 | 80.2 | 1% | 4% | ·-5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.