Thu, Apr 30
Race 1
Clm 50000b
Post: 12:45 · 6f · Dirt · $78K purse · 28 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
28 runnersHot pace
16 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 BANNED FOR LIFE (E, QSP 5)
- #1 BANNED FOR LIFE (E, QSP 5)
- #1 BANNED FOR LIFE (E, QSP 5)
- #1 BANNED FOR LIFE (E, QSP 5)
- #6 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 STAR'S IMAGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 STAR'S IMAGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 STAR'S IMAGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 STAR'S IMAGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 TEJON PASS (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 TEJON PASS (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 TEJON PASS (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 TEJON PASS (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 1
B Contenders
1, 1, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BEBANNED FOR LIFE | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 85.7 | 5% | 15% | ▼-84% |
| 1 | BEBANNED FOR LIFE | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 85.3 | 5% | 14% | ▼-84% |
| 1 | BEBANNED FOR LIFE | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 85.3 | 5% | 14% | ▼-84% |
| 1 | BEBANNED FOR LIFE | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 85.3 | 5% | 14% | ▼-84% |
| 6 | BEPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 83.2 | 4% | 12% | ▼-45% |
| 6 | BEPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 83.2 | 4% | 12% | ▼-45% |
| 6 | BEPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 83.2 | 4% | 12% | ▼-45% |
| 6 | BEPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 83.2 | 4% | 12% | ▼-45% |
| 4 | EPSTAR'S IMAGE | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 79.8 | 4% | 11% | ▼-35% |
| 4 | EPSTAR'S IMAGE | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 79.8 | 4% | 11% | ▼-35% |
| 4 | EPSTAR'S IMAGE | 4.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 79.8 | 4% | 11% | ▼-35% |
| 4 | EPSTAR'S IMAGE | 4.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 79.3 | 4% | 11% | ▼-36% |
| 3 | SSURF CITY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 82.1 | 3% | 10% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | SSURF CITY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 82.1 | 3% | 10% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | SSURF CITY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 82.1 | 3% | 10% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | SSURF CITY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 82.1 | 3% | 10% | ▼-10% |
| 5 | PKEEP ON MOVING | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 10% | ▼-19% |
| 5 | PKEEP ON MOVING | 8.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 10% | ▼-19% |
| 5 | PKEEP ON MOVING | 8.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 10% | ▼-19% |
| 5 | PKEEP ON MOVING | 8.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 10% | ▼-19% |
| 7 | EPTEJON PASS | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 80.5 | 3% | 10% | ▼-27% |
| 7 | EPTEJON PASS | 6.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 7 | EPTEJON PASS | 6.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 7 | EPTEJON PASS | 6.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 79.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 2 | SOPTICAL | 6.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 79.7 | 3% | 9% | ▼-28% |
| 2 | SOPTICAL | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 79.7 | 3% | 9% | ▼-28% |
| 2 | SOPTICAL | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 79.7 | 3% | 9% | ▼-28% |
| 2 | SOPTICAL | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 79.7 | 3% | 9% | ▼-28% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.