Derby 2026
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PP 3

SURF CITY

H '21 · MENDELSSOHN × EVASIVE STORM

Trainer: OLIVER VICTORIA · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

84.2

Speed fig

46.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.91
  • Max Speed Fig Career +1.26
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.40
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.36
  • Prior Starts At Churchill +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.46
  • Days Since Last Race -0.29
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.27
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.19
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 5.5f Turf 8 6.3 75 Bmpd btw/steady st;3p
2026-03-04 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 10.0 72 96 Vied ins foe;faded 1/4
2026-02-06 TP 1m Dirt 6 6.3 88 92 Pull;bid 5/8;faded 1/8
2026-01-07 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 9.3 76 96 Ins;3p3/16;no factor
2025-12-06 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 4.3 85 96 Improved position late
2025-11-14 CD 5.5f Turf 5 3.0 92 91 Swung 10w;gaining late
2025-10-17 KEE 5.5f Turf 4 5.3 86 Step slow;improvd late
2025-09-10 KD 7f Turf 4 1.0 87 91 Bmp st; ins; stymy5/16
2025-08-01 ELP 5.5f Turf 5 3.0 83 91 Step slow;2w;no factor
2025-06-27 CD 5.5f Turf 10 7.5 81 91 Never menaced