John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 3

SURF CITY

H '21 · MENDELSSOHN × EVASIVE STORM

Trainer: OLIVER VICTORIA · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

82.1

Speed fig

10.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.44
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.63
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.78
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.37
  • Today Field Size +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.28
  • Today Track Code -0.18
  • Weight Change From Last -0.13
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.12
  • Last Finish Pos -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 5.5f Turf 8 6.3 75 Bmpd btw/steady st;3p
2026-03-04 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 10.0 72 96 Vied ins foe;faded 1/4
2026-02-06 TP 1m Dirt 6 6.3 88 92 Pull;bid 5/8;faded 1/8
2026-01-07 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 9.3 76 96 Ins;3p3/16;no factor
2025-12-06 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 4.3 85 96 Improved position late
2025-11-14 CD 5.5f Turf 5 3.0 92 91 Swung 10w;gaining late
2025-10-17 KEE 5.5f Turf 4 5.3 86 Step slow;improvd late
2025-09-10 KD 7f Turf 4 1.0 87 91 Bmp st; ins; stymy5/16
2025-08-01 ELP 5.5f Turf 5 3.0 83 91 Step slow;2w;no factor
2025-06-27 CD 5.5f Turf 10 7.5 81 91 Never menaced