Sat, Jun 6
Race 2
OClm 80000b
Post: 11:37 · 7f · Dirt · $125K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 RESILIENCE (E, QSP 3)
- #3 LIFE AND TIMES (E, QSP 1)
- #7 CONTRARY THINKING (EP, QSP 1)
- #8 COMMUTED (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 3, 9, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
12.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$17.15
mean $16.21
Expected ROI
-66.5%
net $-3.99
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 9, 4] — hits 12.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $17 (mean $16; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3, 9
B Contenders
4, 7, 8
C Value-edge longshots
1, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.9% | $17.15 | -67% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 17.0% | $17.52 | -68% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.2% | $19.05 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 16.6% | $19.05 | -64% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 28.8% | $21.14 | -63% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AELIFE AND TIMES | 1.8-1 | 1.3-1 | 95.0 | 24% | 63% | ▼-28% |
| 9 | APSENIOR OFFICER | 2.0-1 | 1.3-1 | 93.5 | 22% | 61% | ▼-24% |
| 4 | BSINCENTIVE PAY | 5.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 91.7 | 18% | 52% | ▲+10% |
| 7 | BEPCONTRARY THINKING | 8.0-1 | 6.4-1 | 89.7 | 11% | 35% | ▲+7% |
| 8 | BEPCOMMUTED | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 87.6 | 9% | 29% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | CPAWESOME NATIVE | 20-1 | 23-1 | 85.7 | 6% | 21% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | CSPARADISE VALLEY | 30-1 | 32-1 | 85.4 | 6% | 20% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | ERESILIENCE | 15-1 | 17-1 | 85.2 | 5% | 19% | ·+3% |
| 2 | SCREUNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.