John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 3

AMARTH

F '22 · MCKINZIE × CRIMINAL MISCHIEF

Trainer: KENNEALLY EDDIE · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

84.2

Speed fig

47.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.75
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.90
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.64
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.64
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.44

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.13
  • Num Career Starts -0.13
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate -0.08
  • Weight Change From Last -0.08
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-08 KEE 7f Dirt 3 12.8 80 92 3p;up show 4-5p1/8
2026-02-07 FG 1.06m Dirt 3 13.5 76 88 Stlk;vied btwn;ran on
2025-11-05 CD 7f Dirt 4 3.0 89 92 Ins-2p;aim btw;yielded
2025-06-22 CD 1m Dirt 4 5.0 80 89 Btwn3p5/16;swung5p str
2025-05-16 PIM 1.13m Dirt 5 12.8 75 95 Bump start;4w turns
2025-04-07 KEE 1.06m Dirt 5 8.8 82 100 5-2p;4p2nd;no threat
2025-03-01 AQU 1m Dirt 2 0.8 88 90 Bmp brk;rally 4p;3p1/4
2024-12-21 FG 1.04m Dirt 6 7.0 75 90 2-4p;outkck/steady 1/8
2024-11-15 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 0.1 77 85 Snug ins;5pbtw upr;bid
2024-10-18 KEE 7f Dirt 1 2.5 83 86 2w;led 1/4;repelld bid