John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 5

MARCINKOWSKI

F '22 · BLAME × VERDURA

Trainer: OLIVER VICTORIA · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

76.0

Speed fig

17.5%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.45
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.45
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.43
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.39
  • Class Par Trend +0.28

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -0.85
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.58
  • Today Field Size -0.50
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.46
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.33

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-23 KEE 1.13m Turf 8 9.8 72 81 3p;7p upr;no menace
2025-08-10 ELP 1.06m Turf 3 2.3 80 80 2wbtw;splt 4w;held shw
2025-07-03 ELP 1m Turf 3 2.3 67 80 Ins;swift move 4w;led
2025-06-07 CD 1.13m Turf 7 7.0 75 81 Reluctnt ld;traffc1/16
2024-09-01 KD 1m Turf 4 7.8 63 72 1/2 step slow;6w1/4