John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 1

NOTARY

G '18 · STREET SENSE × ELLESMERE

Trainer: HERNANDEZ ARMANDO · Jockey: ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL

Today's prediction

84.2

Speed fig

43.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.73
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.03
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.65
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.61
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.43

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.19
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.18
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.12
  • Num Career Starts -0.11
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-25 OP 1m Dirt 5 6.5 83 89 Track 2-3p; flattened
2026-03-20 OP 1m Dirt 3 3.3 85 92 3p;swung5p str;kept on
2026-03-06 OP 1.06m Dirt 3 6.3 84 89 Bid btwn4p1/4;even out
2026-02-14 OP 1m Dirt 1 0.8 89 85 Bid3p1/4;inched ahead
2026-01-04 OP 1.06m Dirt 7 12.3 80 Tight; traffic 7/8
2025-09-24 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 24.8 66 96 Outs wnnr;drft out;wkn
2025-08-25 PRM 1m Dirt 1 0.8 86 89 Stalk;vied;2w;edgd awy
2024-02-24 OP 1.06m Dirt 3 3.0 96 100 3w move;bid;faltered
2024-01-26 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 5.0 96 96 Rail bid 2nd;kickd clr
2024-01-06 OP 1.06m Dirt 2 1.0 91 96 4w 2nd;duel;outkicked