John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 7

SYSTEMIC CHANGE

G '19 · GHOSTZAPPER × MAJESTIC RIVER

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

86.5

Speed fig

53.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.99
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.12
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.09
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.79
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.77

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.25
  • Distance Change From Last -0.21
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.19
  • Today Post Position -0.15
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-01 OP 1.50m Dirt 5 21.0 78 94 Stalked 3p; weakened
2026-02-16 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 4.3 91 93 3p5/16;6p upr;kick clr
2026-01-15 AQU 1m Dirt 2 7.5 84 90 3-4w upper; belatedly
2025-12-05 AQU 1m Dirt 1 4.8 88 95 4w upper; edged clear
2025-11-13 AQU 1m Dirt 1 3.5 91 89 3p turn;bid1/4;clear
2025-10-18 BAQ 1.19m Dirt 4 8.3 80 91 Ins run 2nd;no rally
2025-09-25 BAQ 1m Dirt 1 0.5 93 90 Ins;2p3/16angld;rally
2025-08-31 SAR 1m Dirt 4 6.3 84 93 6-3p1st;2-4p2nd;7p1/4
2025-08-22 SAR 1.13m Dirt 1 4.0 91 92 Pinched st; edged clr
2025-07-16 SAR 1.13m Dirt 6 11.0 79 96 2-3p2nd turn;no rally