John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 7

THE LONG EMBRACE

F '23 · TOM'S D'ETAT × EMBRACING

Trainer: HARTMAN CHRIS · Jockey: ESPINOZA ASSAEL

Today's prediction

62.4

Speed fig

15.0%

In-the-money

Last 1 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Weight Change From Last +0.35
  • Distance Change From Last +0.31
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.29
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.23
  • Mean Trouble Last 5 +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -7.53
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.70
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.53
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.03
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.64

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-26 OP 6f Dirt 9 18.0 53 85 Stdy rail early;no bid