John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 4

SPILL THE SUGAR

F '23 · CANDY RIDE × TELL ALL

Trainer: CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET · Jockey: CONCEPCION AXEL

Today's prediction

57.2

Speed fig

11.5%

In-the-money

Last 1 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.40
  • Weight Change From Last +0.36
  • Distance Change From Last +0.23
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate +0.16
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -10.94
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -2.15
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.97
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.14
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.77

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 LS 6.5f Dirt 4 5.5 52 78 Even effort