Sat, May 23
Race 2
Clm 12500
Post: 1:15 · 6f · Dirt · $45K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 FIRST HILL (E, QSP 7)
- #7 BLACK GINGER (EP, QSP 7)
- #3 SUNSET HARBOUR (E, QSP 4)
- #1 Q'S YOUR MAMA (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 2, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$24.64
mean $37.89
Expected ROI
-74.3%
net $-4.46
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 2, 1, 5] — hits 4.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $25 (mean $38; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 2
B Contenders
1, 5, 7
C Value-edge longshots
4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.1% | $27.40 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.0% | $32.96 | -71% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.8% | $24.64 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 12.5% | $44.46 | -75% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 15.3% | $47.11 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APMY BOSSY LADY | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | 76.0 | 17% | 49% | ▼-24% |
| 2 | AEFIRST HILL | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | 75.6 | 15% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 1 | BEPQ'S YOUR MAMA | 3.0-1 | 3.9-1 | 76.7 | 15% | 45% | ▼-19% |
| 5 | BPSTREET PAINTER | 8.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 76.6 | 15% | 44% | ▲+16% |
| 7 | BEPBLACK GINGER | 3.5-1 | 3.9-1 | 74.0 | 13% | 41% | ▼-16% |
| 3 | ESUNSET HARBOUR | 6.0-1 | 8.5-1 | 74.8 | 13% | 41% | ·+4% |
| 4 | CPASK AMANDA | 15-1 | 24-1 | 72.0 | 11% | 35% | ▲+19% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.