Sat, May 23
Race 1
Md Sp Wt
Post: 12:45 · 1m · Dirt · $92K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 COMMAND THE STARS (E, QSP 8)
- #2 PLAZA CUE (EP, QSP 5)
2 of 6 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
TightHighest hit-rate tier — best chance to cash a small ticket. Still negative-EV after takeout, but the model has a read.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 3, 2, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
22.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$5.77
mean $12.37
Expected ROI
-53.6%
net $-3.22
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 3, 2, 6] — hits 22.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $6 (mean $12; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Top 4 cover the ITM math — chalk should hit; payouts likely small.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
3, 2, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 34.4% | $4.24 | -74% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 29.8% | $5.77 | -46% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 41.0% | $5.77 | -56% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 31.8% | $5.77 | -46% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 53.7% | $5.77 | -49% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APSISTER JEAN | 1.8-1 | 1.7-1 | 81.0 | 32% | 81% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | BSLUNAR LOOP | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | 79.4 | 25% | 74% | ·+1% |
| 2 | BEPPLAZA CUE | 1.2-1 | 1.0-1 | 79.5 | 23% | 71% | ▼-29% |
| 6 | BGRANT'S GRETCHEN | 15-1 | 21-1 | 73.8 | 11% | 40% | ▲+24% |
| 4 | ECOMMAND THE STARS | 12-1 | 23-1 | 65.7 | 7% | 27% | ▲+7% |
| 5 | GOT WHAT I GOT | 30-1 | 46-1 | 49.2 | 2% | 7% | ·-1% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.