John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 11

EMBRY SHOW

C '23 · MODERNIST × LILA RUTH

Trainer: BAFFERT BOB · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

81.6

Speed fig

41.9%

In-the-money

Last 1 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.17
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.59
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.73
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.63
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.45

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Post Position -0.26
  • Today Field Size -0.21
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.19
  • Speed Fig Trend -0.16
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-07 SA 6.5f Dirt 5 7.8 82 92 Chased 3-4wd; no rally