John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 6

MARKET CHILL

F '23 · NOT THIS TIME × SCARLETT LACE

Trainer: BROWN CHAD C · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

81.8

Speed fig

56.2%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.47
  • Today Track Code +0.81
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.73
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.24
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.22

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.04
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.12
  • Field Early Speed Count -0.11
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.10
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.09

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 KEE 1.06m Dirt 3 10.3 81 87 3-4p;ran on;denied plc
2026-01-11 TAM 1.02m Dirt 1 5.0 81 78 4p;bid 3w;clr;wrap lat
2025-10-03 KEE 1.06m Turf 4 8.5 77 76 3p;2wbtw 2nd;stayed on
2025-09-04 KD 1m Turf 2 1.5 72 72 3-4w;advance;2nd best
2025-07-25 SAR 1m Turf 7 7.0 69 77 Stumbled after start