John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 3

PELICAN BAY

C '23 · MAXIMUM SECURITY × SPINNING STAR

Trainer: DRURY THOMAS JR · Jockey: MONCADA IRVING

Today's prediction

77.4

Speed fig

55.5%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.44
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.41
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.40
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.32
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.30

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.81
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.48
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.16
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.13
  • Field Early Speed Count -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 1.06m Dirt 4 3.3 79 88 Stalk 4-3p;chsd;yield
2026-02-27 TP 1m Dirt 4 6.5 72 78 2w-ins;outkicked show
2026-02-06 TP 6f Dirt 2 0.1 77 78 5p3/16;rally;bid;miss