John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 1

PAUL'S RECOVERY

C '23 · INDEPENDENCE HALL × MORNING BELLE

Trainer: MCPEEK KENNETH G · Jockey: ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL

Today's prediction

73.7

Speed fig

45.1%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.74
  • Today Post Position +0.27
  • Weight Change From Last +0.25
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.22
  • Today Field Size +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.12
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.44
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.38
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.19
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 10.3 74 87 Tight start;checkd 1/2
2026-03-21 FG 1.06m Dirt 7 13.8 70 89 Saved ground;no factor